A “White Collar Recession” in Employment

According to Business Insider, hiring in white collar sectors like technology, HR, marketing and consulting has dropped considerably from levels six years ago. The media, of course, have been telling us that all is well for the past four years, but those looking for jobs know the story is different. According to Forbes, BLS data indicate that white collar job growth has been “steadily declining over the past few years.” Those data are illustrated by the following:

The current 12-month average of 203,000 new jobs per month represents a significant drop from previous years, with 251,000 in 2023, 377,000 in 2022 and a much higher 604,000 in 2021.

Job growth is described as “sluggish” at 7 percent annually, while applications are growing at a 31 percent clip – so there is a lot of competition out there. Thus, while service, healthcare, government, social assistance and construction positions are more abundant, white-collar applicants are having a difficult time. The exception is in highly specialized areas, like AI. Almost 140,000 white collar positions have been terminated just this calendar year. Additionally, remote work opportunities are drying up, just as workers are resisting having to return to offices – especially on a full-time basis. Many large companies have laid off thousands of employees, even though they are financially sound; thus, it remains to be seen what the end result will be – whether this is short- or long-term.

Room for optimism

Forbes closes on an upbeat note, however: The Federal Reserve reduced its interest rate in November, which is expected to have a stimulating effect on the economy, although not instantaneous. So there is optimism for an upswing in the economy.